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 Welcome back. The State of the States rolls on this month with a look at the Bob Bradley Era, Mark II, and the new wrinkles that CONCACAF is putting into World Cup qualification. Then we’ll move on to Major League Soccer’s playoff push before turning our attention to what lies ahead for the domestic men’s leagues.
Life With Bob
Bob Bradley’s second stint in charge began with a 2-2 friendly draw against Poland, and will continue on Tuesday against Colombia. With MLS’s season hitting crunch time, it’s difficult to get a read on where Bob intends to go with his roster, given that no MLS players were called in for the first match, and only a couple might appear against Colombia. Instead, we’re left with a mostly foreign-based, and generally proven, crew. That said, I think the group he ran out against Poland is the core of the group he expects to call upon as we wind towards qualification.
Looking at the group assembled, it’s easy to see that the current strength lies in midfield, so much so that midfielders were pushed onto the forward (Dempsey) and defensive (Edu) lines. In fact, the relative weakness, both in depth and quality, of the front and back lines has to be a worry for Bradley. Will he persist on shoehorning proven midfield commodities into unfamiliar roles, or will he broaden his search for new blood to invigorate the old?
Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes
And while we’re on the topic of freshening things up, let’s turn our attention to CONCACAF, who look to have robbed the region of its marquee rivalry by arranging the World Cup qualification process for 2014 such that the US and Mexico will very likely be kept apart.
The new format will give the smaller nations in the region more games against bigger opposition (after qualifiers for the six lowest-ranked teams, the entire field is drawn into 8 groups of 4, with the top two from each group advancing after the usual set of home-and-away matches). For those smaller nations, this will provide more matches to fill the cash registers and give them more high-level games in which to develop (six, versus the two-and-out most faced in previous cycles). But it also means more games for the top nations against poor opponents, often playing on low quality fields and facing the likelihood of heavy fouling by overmatched opposition.
Not only that, but the new final stage will consist of two groups of 4. In all likelihood, that keeps the US and Mexico apart for the entire qualification cycle. It also reduces the number of games against quality opposition that the top teams will face during the qualification process. To give the format its due, however, though this is a loss for fans of the rivalry and the elite nations of CONCACAF, it’s probably going to be beneficial for the minnows and the middle-tier. Additionally, the format is not unprecedented, variants being in use in other continental qualification schemes.
Of Shields and Cups
From the much-varied quality of CONCACAF we dive into the parity-infested waters of MLS. Though the field in the race for the Supporters’ Shield (regular season champion) was reduced from five to three this weekend, the race is still on. Sadly, the mad scramble for MLS Cup playoff spots that has been a feature of seasons past isn’t on the cards this year. Only 9 teams remain alive in the battle for 8 playoff spots, though the 9th (the Wizards) entertain only the faintest of hopes.
Curiously, one glance at the playoff standings will reveal the geographically-skewed nature of this year’s competition. In all likelihood, we’re only going to have 2 sides from the Eastern Conference arrayed against 6 from the West. Which brings up the old question, doesn’t it? Why persist with the conference structure at all? Consider that if things finished today, #1 would face #6 and #2 would face #3 in the first round of the playoffs, while #4 would get #8 and #5 would get #7. Really? You want the fifth seed playing the seventh while the second faces the third? You want to put the top three seeds on one side of the bracket, thus guaranteeing that one finalist will be, at best, the fourth best team over the course of the season while the big guns beat each other up to progress? And all this after playing a balanced schedule that’s removed any weight from the conference structure?
Going Forward
As we move further into the fall, the discerning fan will be keeping an eye on...
- Who will the playoffs favor? Did LA peak too early or is Beckham’s return the tonic for complacency? Will RSL, Seattle, and the Crew be slowed by the toll of the Champions’ League? Will the star-power of three DP’s carry the Red Bulls? Can streaking Dallas and Colorado keep their runs alive? Or will San Jose be this year's black sheep?
- The MLS expansion draft. With two teams entering the league next year, the protected lists are more important given that teams can potentially lose two players and a greater number will be chosen overall, thus lowering the bar on the quality of players selected.
- The interesting shifts going on in lower division soccer. Can NASL put together enough teams to field a genuine second division, or will the whole house of cards collapse as lower division stalwarts make the seemingly inevitable leap to MLS? Who do the likes of Austin and Rochester throw their hats in the ring with, NASL or USL Pro?
Until next time, this is the State of the States, signing off for October, 2010.
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Although it's disappointing to lose the regular US-Mexico matches, I think the new qualifying format will be good for the region as a whole. Weaker nations will improve, and thus push the middle nations, who in turn will improve and push the top nations.
Also agree that MLS should ditch the conference format and go to a single table. Sadly I fear they'll switch to a 3 conference format in 2011.